No matter how optimistic we are about photovoltaic power, and no matter how much the country clamps down on fossil power, coal-fired power has always been like a camel bigger than a horse, with new installations weighing on photovoltaic power every year.
However, the latest projections suggest that pv installations in China and the United States, the first and second largest in the world, will be the leading source of total new generation capacity in 2022.
The US Energy Information Administration expects 46.1 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity to be added to the US grid by 2022. Nearly half (46%) of that will be solar, followed by natural gas (21%) and wind (17%). The data was collected by the EIA in a series of monthly and annual generator surveys, which asked developers to share their planned activation dates for projects over a five-year period.
Utility-scale solar generation in the US is expected to grow by 21.5GW in 2021, with distributed pv expected to add up to 25GW.
China's Energy Bureau statistics show that by November 2021, China has added 34.83 GW of photovoltaic power generation. According to incomplete statistics of industry media, in December, there will be 17GW of ground photovoltaic power stations and 8GW of distributed and rooftop photovoltaic grid connection, and the annual new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to reach 60GW.
By November 2021, China's installed thermal power has reached 39.93 GW, not only higher than last year, but also more than photovoltaic. On past trends, this year's new pv additions will match or slightly outperform those of coal-fired power. According to previous CPIA and Global Pv analysis, China is expected to add 70GW of new PV installations in 2022. Due to statistical factors, China's new wind power installed capacity in 2020 is 71.67GW, far ahead of coal power. If the new pv can reach 70GW in 2022, pv will inevitably become the mainstream of all new power generation in 2022.
