Global Photovoltaics Reports: Module Prices Surge by 20% Amid Policy Rush
According to a price adjustment notice from a well-known tier-one brand, module prices have risen from ¥0.67/W to ¥0.72/W, marking an increase of ¥0.05/W.
The Solar Industry Returns to a Seller's Market
Reports indicate that leading companies such as Trina Solar, Tongwei, and Canadian Solar have seen their inventories of popular module models nearly depleted. Production lines are now operating in a "produce and ship immediately" mode, and procurement lead times have extended by an additional 5-7 days, now reaching approximately 15 days. Even smaller manufacturers are selling out their stock as soon as it becomes available.
With the photovoltaic industry abruptly shifting back to a seller's market, price increases have become inevitable. Tier-one manufacturers such as Trina Solar and LONGi have already raised their ex-factory prices by ¥0.02-¥0.05/W over the past week. The price hikes have been confirmed in both domestic and European markets, with industry expectations suggesting that module prices may soon approach the ¥0.8/W range.
But what is fueling this sudden surge in demand, especially when silicon material prices previously struggled to drive up module prices?
The Rush to Install & Market Imbalance
The 2024 solar market faced low prices, losses, and financial struggles. In response, industry players self-regulated production capacity, implementing coordinated production cuts and controlled expansion to stabilize prices.
On February 9, 2025, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) jointly issued a policy notice on reforming electricity pricing for renewable energy. This policy, set to take effect on June 1, 2025, triggered a rush to install projects as developers scrambled to lock in returns, causing a surge in module demand.
After the Chinese New Year, demand rebounded in both domestic and international markets. Large-scale PV projects in China accelerated, while inventory levels in Europe and other overseas markets declined, further driving up module prices.
Additionally, supply chain constraints are contributing to rising prices. By the end of 2024, the solar industry's inventory levels had hit historic lows, and current orders are already booked until Q2 2025.
Meanwhile, extended delivery times, supply shortages, contract breaches, and order snatching have become increasingly common, revealing the fragility of the supply chain under short-term policy-driven demand spikes.
What Happens When the Surge Ends?
Historically, installation rushes have led to post-boom price crashes, as seen after China's "6.30" installation rush in 2016, which resulted in module price collapses and industry-wide production cuts.
In 2025, module prices are rebounding due to multiple factors, but challenges remain.
While the current installation boom supports higher module prices, once the rush is over, the industry could face a sharp demand decline and production surplus, leading to another downward price correction.
Ultimately, the sustainability of price increases will depend on whether long-term supply and demand remain balanced.
Despite short-term volatility, the solar industry's long-term outlook remains positive. Two major policy shifts are expected to drive healthy growth, and once the market stabilizes, this phase of supply correction could pave the way for another wave of explosive growth.
Source: Global Photovoltaics
